Context. Wetland-dependent species in the Upper Midwest (USA) are threatened by habitat loss. Suitable habitat requires both appropriate vegetation and climate. Whether wetland restoration can enhance suitable habitat for wetland species in a changing climate is unknown.
Objectives. We analyzed habitat availability for three wetland-dependent species with contrasting niche requirements: black tern (Chlidonias niger), least skipper (Ancyloxypha numitor) and wood frog (Lithobates sylvaticus). We asked how the independent and joint effects of climate change and wetland restoration would alter suitable habitat for each species.
Methods. Climatic niches were modeled by species using MaxEnt and recent bioclimatic variables then predicted for mid-century under four climate projections (warm/hot × wet/dry). We contrasted the extent and pattern of suitable habitat given current wetlands and restoration of historical wetlands under current and projected future climate.
Results. Future climate remained suitable for black tern, and suitable habitat increased with wetland restoration under all climate projections. Suitable habitat for the least skipper is limited by both climate and wetland extent and only increased with a wet future and wetland restoration. Future climate was largely unsuitable for the wood frog, and suitable habitat became limited to the northeast portion of the region; wetland restoration did not increase suitable habitat for the wood frog, because the climatic niche and restored wetlands were misaligned.
Conclusion. For wetland restoration to sustain species’ habitat under climate change, areas of restoration must remain aligned with suitable climate. Thus, the climatic niche of a focal species should be assessed before undertaking wetland restoration.